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Environmental Impact and Consequences of EU Car Fleet Development
Corresponding Author(s) : Yulia Hristova
Geomatics and Environmental Engineering,
Vol. 20 No. 3 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering
Abstract
This study analyzes the environmental impact of the EU car fleet and investigates the relationship between its age structure, motorization rate, the share of hybrid and electric vehicles, and carbon emission levels, considering both overall trends and regional variations based on population income. The methodology employed descriptive, comparative, and correlational analyses using recent data from European statistical and institutional sources. The findings indicate that despite the growing adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles (AFVs), the EU car fleet continues to age, and emissions show only a negligible reduction. Significant regional disparities were identified, with wealthier nations maintaining younger, more environmentally sustainable vehicle fleets. Furthermore, air pollution measured by carbon dioxide emissions was positively correlated with vehicle age and negatively correlated with both the share of AFVs and the proportion of newly registered vehicles. The research highlights the tension between the objectives of the circular economy and the crucial need for accelerated fleet modernization, proposing directions for advancing sustainable mobility and environmentally responsible consumer behavior.
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- International Organization for Standardization (ISO): Environmental management – Life cycle assessment – Principles and framework (ISO 14040:2006). July 2006.
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- Sundin E.: Product and process design for successful remanufacturing. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping 2004 [PhD thesis].
- Commission Recommendation (EU) 2021/2279 of 15 December 2021 on the use of the environmental footprint methods to measure and communicate the life cycle environmental performance of products and organisations. Official Journal of the European Union, L 471, December 30, 2021, http://data.europa.eu/eli/reco/2021/2279/oj.
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- Mitrokhin N., Pavlov A.: Utilizatsiya i retsikling avtomobiley: Uchebnoye posobiye [Utilization and recycling of automobiles: a textbook]. Moskovskiy Avtomobil’no-Dorozhnyy Gosudarstvennyy Tekhnicheskiy Universitet, Moscow 2015.
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- European Commission: Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy: Cohesion in Europe towards 2050 – Eighth report on economic, social and territorial cohesion. Publications Office of the European Union, 2022. https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2776/624081.
- Gatev K.: Metodi za analiz na strukturi i strukturni efekti [Methods for analysis of structures and structural effects]. Universitetsko izdatelstvo “Stopanstvo”, Sofia 2007.
- Eurostat: New passenger cars by type of motor energy. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqr_carpda/default/table?lang=en [access: November 18, 2025].
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- Eurostat: Passenger cars – per thousand inhabitants. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carhab__custom_17777879/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
- Eurostat: Population on 1 January. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001__custom_17966098/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
- Eurostat: Passenger cars by age. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carage__custom_17778041/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2020/2021. 2020. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2020-2021.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2021/2022. 2021. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2021-2022.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2022/2023. 2022. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2022-2023.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2023/2024. 2023. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2023-2024.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2024/2025. 2024. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2024-2025.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2025/2026. 2025. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2025-2026.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
- Sankaran A.: Global consumers driven back to ICE vehicles as EV enthusiasm cools: EY research. EY Global, December 9, 2025. https://www.ey.com/en_gl/newsroom/2025/12/global-consumers-driven-back-to-ice-vehicles-as-ev-enthusiasm-cools-ey-research [access: January 21, 2026].
- ACEA: Electric cars: EU needs 8 times more charging points per year by 2030 to meet CO2 targets. April 29, 2024. https://www.acea.auto/press-release/electric-cars-eu-needs-8-times-more-charging-points-per-year-by-2030-to-meet-co2-targets/ [access: January 21, 2026].
- Sweeting W.J., Winfield P.H.: Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment. Energy Policy, vol. 51, 2012, pp. 927–938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.055.
- Directive 2000/53/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 September 2000 on end-of life vehicles – Commission Statements. Official Journal of the European Communities, L 269, October 21, 2000, pp. 34–43. http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2000/53/oj.
References
Janic M.: Modelling the full costs of an intermodal and road freight transport network. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 12(1), 2007, pp. 33–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2006.10.004
International Organization for Standardization (ISO): Environmental management – Life cycle assessment – Principles and framework (ISO 14040:2006). July 2006.
Pennington D.W., Potting J., Finnveden G., Lindeijer E., Jolliet O., Rydberg T., Rebitzer G.: Life cycle assessment. Part 2: Current impact assessment practice. Environment International, vol. 30(5), 2004, pp. 721–739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2003.12.009.
Sundin E.: Product and process design for successful remanufacturing. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Linköping University, Linköping 2004 [PhD thesis].
Commission Recommendation (EU) 2021/2279 of 15 December 2021 on the use of the environmental footprint methods to measure and communicate the life cycle environmental performance of products and organisations. Official Journal of the European Union, L 471, December 30, 2021, http://data.europa.eu/eli/reco/2021/2279/oj.
Mildenberger U., Khare A.: Planning for an environment-friendly car. Technovation, vol. 20(4), 2000, pp. 205–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-4972(99)00111-X
Staniszewska E., Klimecka-Tatar D., Obrecht M.: Eco-design processes in the automotive industry. Production Engineering Archives, vol. 1(1), 2020, pp. 13–16. https://doi.org/10.30657/pea.2020.26.25
Beckerman B., Jerrett M., Brook J.R., Verma D.K., Arain M.A., Finkelstein M.M.: Correlation of nitrogen dioxide with other traffic pollutants near a major expressway. Atmospheric Environment, vol. 42(2), 2008, pp. 275–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.09.042.
Sundar S., Kumar A., Naresh R.: Effect of automobiles on global warming: A modeling study. Computational Ecology and Software, vol. 7(3), 2017, pp. 100–108.
Mitrokhin N., Pavlov A.: Utilizatsiya i retsikling avtomobiley: Uchebnoye posobiye [Utilization and recycling of automobiles: a textbook]. Moskovskiy Avtomobil’no-Dorozhnyy Gosudarstvennyy Tekhnicheskiy Universitet, Moscow 2015.
Mayyas A., Qattawi A., Omar M., Shan D.: Design for sustainability in automotive industry: A comprehensive review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 16(4), 2012, pp. 1845–1862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.01.012.
Miner P., Smith B.M., McNeill A., Gathorne-Hardy A.: Car harm: A global review of automobility’s harm to people and the environment. Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 115, 2024, 103817. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103817.
Eurostat: Statistics explained. Glossary: Particulate matter – environment. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Particulate_matter_-_environment [access: January 21, 2026].
Ebi K.L., McGregor G.: Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts. Environmental Health Perspectives, vol. 116(11), 2008, pp. 1449–1455. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.11463.
Chapman L.: Transport and climate change: A review. Journal of Transport Geography, vol. 15(5), 2007, pp. 354–367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2006.11.008.
Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport: European Green Deal: Commission proposes transformation of EU economy and society to meet climate ambitions. European Commission, July 14, 2021. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news-events/news/european-green-deal-commission-proposes-transformation-eu-economy-and-society-meet-climate-ambitions-2021-07-14_en [access: January 21, 2026.
Reller A.: Criticality of metal resources for functional materials used in electronics and microelectronics. Physica Status Solidi (RRL) – Rapid Research Letters, vol. 5(9), 2011, pp. 309–311. https://doi.org/10.1002/pssr.201105126.
Schmid D., Zur-Lage L.: Perspektiven für das Recycling von Altfahrzeugen – moderne Fahrzeuge und angepasste Recyclingverfahren, [in:] Thomé-Kozmiensky K.J., Goldmann D. (Hrsg.), Recycling und Rohstoffe: Band 7, Thomé-Kozmiensky Verlag, Neuruppin 2014, pp. 105–126.
Regulation (EC) No 715/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 June 2007 on type approval of motor vehicles with respect to emissions from light passenger and commercial vehicles (Euro 5 and Euro 6) and on access to vehicle repair and maintenance information. Official Journal of the European Union, L 171, June 29, 2007, pp. 1–16. http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2007/715/oj.
Regulation (EC) No 595/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 June 2009 on type-approval of motor vehicles and engines with respect to emissions from heavy duty vehicles (Euro VI) and on access to vehicle repair and maintenance information and amending Regulation (EC) No 715/2007 and Directive 2007/46/EC and repealing Directives 80/1269/EEC, 2005/55/EC and 2005/78/ EC. Official Journal of the European Union, L 188, July 18, 2009. http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2009/595/oj.
Regulation (EU) 2024/1257 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 April 2024 on type-approval of motor vehicles and engines and of systems, components and separate technical units intended for such vehicles, with respect to their emissions and battery durability (Euro 7), amending Regulation (EU) 2018/858 of the European Parliament and of the Council and repealing Regulations (EC) No 715/2007 and (EC) No 595/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, Commission Regulation (EU) No 582/2011, Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/1151, Commission Regulation (EU) 2017/2400 and Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2022/1362. Official Journal of the European Union, L 1257, May 8, 2024, pp. 1–90. http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1257/oj.
Dornoff J., Rodríguez F.: Euro 7: The new emission standard for lightand heavy-duty vehicles in the European Union. International Council on Clean Transportation, March 2024. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ID-116-%E2%80%93-Euro-7-standard_final_v2.pdf [access: January 21, 2026].
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Gatev K.: Metodi za analiz na strukturi i strukturni efekti [Methods for analysis of structures and structural effects]. Universitetsko izdatelstvo “Stopanstvo”, Sofia 2007.
Eurostat: New passenger cars by type of motor energy. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqr_carpda/default/table?lang=en [access: November 18, 2025].
Eurostat: Passenger cars, by type of motor energy and size of engine. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carmot__custom_17777852/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
Eurostat: Passenger cars – per thousand inhabitants. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carhab__custom_17777879/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
Eurostat: Population on 1 January. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tps00001__custom_17966098/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
Eurostat: Passenger cars by age. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/road_eqs_carage__custom_17778041/default/table [access: November 18, 2025].
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2020/2021. 2020. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2020-2021.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
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ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2022/2023. 2022. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA_Pocket_Guide_2022-2023.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2023/2024. 2023. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2023-2024.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2024/2025. 2024. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2024-2025.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
ACEA (European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association): ACEA Pocket Guide 2025/2026. 2025. https://www.acea.auto/files/ACEA-Pocket-Guide-2025-2026.pdf [access: November 18, 2025].
Sankaran A.: Global consumers driven back to ICE vehicles as EV enthusiasm cools: EY research. EY Global, December 9, 2025. https://www.ey.com/en_gl/newsroom/2025/12/global-consumers-driven-back-to-ice-vehicles-as-ev-enthusiasm-cools-ey-research [access: January 21, 2026].
ACEA: Electric cars: EU needs 8 times more charging points per year by 2030 to meet CO2 targets. April 29, 2024. https://www.acea.auto/press-release/electric-cars-eu-needs-8-times-more-charging-points-per-year-by-2030-to-meet-co2-targets/ [access: January 21, 2026].
Sweeting W.J., Winfield P.H.: Future transportation: Lifetime considerations and framework for sustainability assessment. Energy Policy, vol. 51, 2012, pp. 927–938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.055.
Directive 2000/53/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 September 2000 on end-of life vehicles – Commission Statements. Official Journal of the European Communities, L 269, October 21, 2000, pp. 34–43. http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2000/53/oj.