Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, vol. 20, no. 5

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 5 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

Date Log

Submitted
Feb 19, 2026
Accepted
Jun 9, 2026
Published
Aug 18, 2026
Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Hydroclimatic Change and Environmental Vulnerability in Central and Southern Iraq Using Geospatial Techniques

https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2026.20.5.91
Alaa G. Khalaf
Scientific Research Commission, Baghdad, Iraq
https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2662-2547
Raad A. Abbood
Scientific Research Commission, Baghdad, Iraq
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0871-0600
Imzahim A. Alwan
University of Technology, Civil Engineering College, Baghdad, Iraq
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8128-6658
Abdulrazzak T. Ziboon
Al Esraa University, Engineering College, Baghdad, Iraq
http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1787-8779

Corresponding Author(s) : Alaa G. Khalaf

alaa.gh.khalaf@src.edu.iq

Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, Vol. 20 No. 5 (2026): Geomatics and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

Climate and hydrology-related stresses arise in central and southern Iraq as a result of both the impacts of climate change and declining river flows, and long-term assessments are still limited. This study aims to address two questions: how have climatic and environmental conditions changed over time in the study area, and what is the relationship between climate change and drought in the region. A Geographic Information System (GIS) with remote sensing data was utilized to study climatic, hydrological, and ecological variables. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used for trend analysis. To assess the vegetation and surface water conditions, the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) were utilized. The final results illustrated a strengthening pattern of hydroclimatic stress, with a significant decline in rainfall alongside a rise in mean temperature and land surface temperature, which led to increased evaporation rates and declined relative humidity. The surface water decreased from 22 to 15% and the percentage of land affected by extreme drought expanded from 37 to 43%. Also, growing winds and dust storm events underscore a self-enhancing feedback mechanism associated with land degradation. These changes are further intensified by declining inflows from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers because of upstream control over these river systems.

Keywords

geostatistics Geographic Information System (GIS) Mann–Kendall Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) Vegetation Condition Index (VCI)
Khalaf, A. G. ., Abbood, R. A. . ., Alwan, I. A., & Ziboon, A. T. (2026). Spatiotemporal Assessment of Hydroclimatic Change and Environmental Vulnerability in Central and Southern Iraq Using Geospatial Techniques. Geomatics and Environmental Engineering, 20(5), 91–128. https://doi.org/10.7494/geom.2026.20.5.91
Download Citation
Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
BibTeX
References
  1. Mohammed A.S., Alhadeethi I.K., Al-Hadeethi B., Almawla A.S.: Assessing the impact of climate change on temperature and rainfall patterns in Iraq’s northern desert using GIS. International Journal of Design & Nature and Ecodynamics, vol. 20(5), 2025, pp. 1151–1159. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijdne.200519.
  2. UNESCO: Integrated drought risk management, DRM: National framework for Iraq: An analysis report (2nd ed.). UNESCO Office for Iraq, 2014. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000228343.locale=en [access: November 10, 2025].
  3. Hashim B.M., Al Maliki A., Abd Alraheem E., Al-Janabi A.M.S., Halder B., Yaseen Z.M.: Temperature and precipitation trend analysis of the Iraq region under SRES scenarios during the twenty‑first century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 148(3–4), 2022, pp. 881–898. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-03976-y.
  4. Jamal J.H., Abbas H.W., Ali K.Z., Mahmood S.: Applications of remote sensing and GIS in assessing climate change and forecasting air quality in Iraq. Journal of Engineering and Technology Development, vol. 1(1), 2023, pp. 1–7.
  5. Sultan M.A., Hashim B.M., Hassan A.R., Nasser M.H.: Determination of impacts of climate change on temperature and rainfall variations in some southern Iraqi governorate using GIS. Iraq Geological Survey, vol. 19(2), 2023, pp. 151–166. https://doi.org/10.59150/ibgm1902a011.
  6. Al-Timimi Y.K., Osamah O.A.: Comparative study of four meteorological drought indices in Iraq. Journal of Applied Physics (IOSR-JAP), vol. 8(5), 2016, pp. 76–84.
  7. Osamah O.A.: Comparative Analysis of Some Drought Indices in Iraq [MSc thesis]. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, Al-Mustansiriyah University, Iraq 2017.
  8. Sholihah R.I., Trisasongko B.H., Shiddiq D., Iman L.O.S., Kusdaryanto S., Manijo, Panuju D.R.: Identification of agricultural drought extent based on vegetation health indices of Landsat data: Case of Subang and Karawang, Indonesia. Procedia Environmental Sciences, vol. 33, 2016, pp. 14–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.051.
  9. Abood R.H., Mahdi A.H., Khalaf A.G., Kadhim A.A.: Evaluation of land cover changes in Karbala governorate using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Iraqi National Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 24(2), 2024, pp. 177–185. https://doi.org/10.33899/earth.2023.143323.1144.
  10. Al-Timimi Y.K., Al-Khudhairy A.A.: Spatial and temporal analysis of maximum temperature over Iraq. Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, vol. 29(1), 2018, pp. 1–8. http://doi.org/10.23851/mjs.v29i1.257.
  11. Mzuri R.T., Omar A.A., Mustafa Y.T.: Spatiotemporal analysis of vegetation cover and its response to terrain and climate factors in Duhok governorate, Kurdistan region, Iraq. Iraqi Geological Journal, vol. 54(1A), 2021, pp. 161–176. https://doi.org/10.46717/igj.54.1A.10Ms-2021-01-31.
  12. Aljuhaishi S., Al-Timimi Y., Wahab B.: Spatio-temporal variation of weather systems and their seasonal variability in Iraq. Iraqi National Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 25(4), 2025, pp. 260–272. https://doi.org/10.33899/earth.2024.153466.1352.
  13. Al-Maliki L.A., Mukheef R.A.A.H., El-Tawil K., Al-Ansari N.: Climate change trends and adaptation strategies in southern regions of Iraq. Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering, vol. 13(4), 2025, pp. 449–468. https://doi.org/10.26599/JGSE.2025.9280065.
  14. Ali Muter S., Al-Jiboori M.H., Al-Timimi Y.K.: An assessment the correlation between rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) over Iraq. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, no. 2, 2025, pp. 79–94. https://doi.org/10.36253/ijam-3069.
  15. Alemu W.G.: Climate change, analysis of temperature and rainfall trend in northern Ethiopia: In the case of Dessie Zuria. American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics, vol. 11(4), 2025, pp. 151–164. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajbes.20251104.11.
  16. Radić M., Šerić L., Bugarić M.: Evaluation of spatial interpolation methods for wind speed and direction: A case study in Split-Dalmatia County. International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, vol. XLVIII-4/W13-2025, 2025, pp. 193–200. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W13-2025-193-2025.
  17. Feng Z., Wang R., Liu X., Huang M., Huo L.: Spatial interpolation methods of temperature data based on geographic information system – taking Jiangxi Province as an example. MDPI Proceedings, vol. 110(1), 2024, 14. https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2024110014.
  18. Pandey N., Panwar K., Sharma M., Punia M.P.: Analysis of spatial interpolation techniques for rainfall data using various methods: A case study of Bisalpur catchment area. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT), vol. 4(23), 2016, IJERTCONV4IS23022.
  19. State Commission of Survey: Iraq administrative map, scale 1:1,000,000. State Commission of Survey, Baghdad 2010.
  20. NASA: NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) [data base]. https://power.larc.nasa.gov [access: March 3, 2025].
  21. United States Geological Survey (USGS): EarthExplorer [search engine]. https://www.usgs.gov/tools/earthexplorer [access: March 5, 2025].
  22. Helmi A.M., Elgamal M., Farouk M.I., Abdelhamed M.S., Essawy B.T.: Evaluation of geospatial interpolation techniques for enhancing spatiotemporal rainfall distribution and filling data gaps in Asir region, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability, vol. 15(18), 2023, 14028. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151814028.
  23. El-Basir M.A.A., Hamed Y., Selim T., Berndtsson R., Helmi A.M.: Developing rainfall spatial distribution for using geostatistical gap‑filled terrestrial gauge records in the mountainous region of Oman. Water, vol. 17(18), 2025, 2695. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17182695.
  24. Mohammed P.A., Al Nuaimy Q.A.M., Shareef M.A.: Spatial distribution maps of soil chemical properties using kriging model and ArcGIS in Kirkuk City, Iraq. Iraqi National Journal of Earth Sciences, vol. 25(4), 2025, pp. 231–245. https://doi.org/10.33899/earth.2024.153439.1351.
  25. Salehı M., Oral H.V.: An example of kriging method based on environmental temperature for altitude mapping using ArcGIS software. Gazi University Journal of Science Part A: Engineering and Innovation, vol. 10(4), 2023, pp. 392–401. https://doi.org/10.54287/gujsa.1339151.
  26. Batool A., Ahmad S., Waseem A., Kartal V., Ali Z., Mohsin M.: Evaluating variogram models and kriging approaches for analyzing spatial trends in precipitation simulations from global climate models. Acta Geophysica, vol. 73(10), 2025, pp. 3677–3697. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01545-1.
  27. Jannah F.M., Fitriani R., Pramoedyo H.: Spatio-temporal kriging for monthly precipitation interpolation in East Kalimantan. Inferensi, vol. 8(2), 2025, pp. 119–128. https://doi.org/10.12962/j27213862.v8i2.22195.
  28. Jang D., Kim N., Choo H.: Kriging interpolation for constructing database of the atmospheric refractivity in Korea. Remote Sensing, vol. 16(13), 2024, 2379. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16132379.
  29. Baniya B., Tang O., Xu X., Haile G.G., Shrestha G.C.: Spatial and temporal variation of drought based on satellite derived vegetation condition index in Nepal from 1982–2015. Sensors, vol. 19(2), 2019, 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/s19020430.
  30. Ghobadi M., Badehian Z.: Assessment of agricultural drought severity using multi-temporal remote sensing data in Lorestan region. Scientific Reports, vol. 15, 2025, 3087. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-03087-4.
  31. Latuamury B., Talaohu M., Sahusilawane F., Imlabla W.N.: Correlation of normalized difference water index and base flow index in small island watershed landscapes. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 883, 2021, 012072. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/883/1/012072.
  32. Ji L., Zhang L., Wylie B.: Analysis of dynamic thresholds for the normalized difference water index. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, vol. 75(11), 2009, pp. 1307–1317. https://doi.org/10.14358/PERS.75.11.1307.
  33. Ali S., Cheema M.J.M., Waqas M.M., Waseem M., Leta M.K., Qamar M.U., Awan U.K., Bilal M., Rahman M.H.: Flood mitigation in the transboundary Chenab river basin: A basin‑wise approach from flood forecasting to management. Remote Sensing, vol. 13(19), 2021, 3916. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193916.
  34. Al-Saadi M.W.H.: The effects of climate change on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Al‑Hawizeh Marsh. International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, vol. 14(8), 2024, pp. 208–217. https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i84343.
  35. Aditya F., Gusmayanti E., Sudrajat J.: Rainfall trend analysis using MannKendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 893, 2021, 012006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012006.
  36. Aswad F.K., Yousif A.A., Ibrahim S.A.: Trend analysis using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test for annual and monthly rainfall for Sinjar District, Iraq. Journal of University of Duhok, vol. 23(2), 2020, pp. 501–508. https://doi.org/10.26682/csjuod.2020.23.2.41.
  37. Gianquintieri L., Mahakalkar A.U., Caiani E.G.: Exploring spatial–temporal patterns of air pollution concentration and their relationship with land use. Atmosphere, vol. 15(6), 2024, 699. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15060699.
  38. Njeban H.S.: Comparison and evaluation of GIS‑based spatial interpolation methods for estimation groundwater level in AL-Salman district – southwest Iraq. Journal of Geographic Information System, vol. 10(4), 2018, pp. 362–380. https://doi.org/10.4236/jgis.2018.104019.
  39. Moran P.A.P.: Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika, vol. 37(1/2), 1950, pp. 17–23. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332142.
  40. Fu W.J., Jiang P.K., Zhou G.M., Zhao K.L.: Using Moran’s I and GIS to study the spatial pattern of forest litter carbon density in a subtropical region of southeastern China. Biogeosciences, vol. 11(9), 2014, pp. 2401–2409. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2401-2014.
  41. Khalbas M.I., Kadhum J.H.: Impact of climate change on water contains for different vegetation cover areas in Wasit province during (1992–2024). Basrah Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 38(2), 2025, pp. 352–365. https://doi.org/10.37077/25200860.2025.38.2.26.
  42. Liu J., Li M., Li R., Shalamzari M.J., Ren Y., Silakhori E.: Comprehensive assessment of drought susceptibility using predictive modeling, climate change projections, and land use dynamics for sustainable management. Land, vol. 14(2), 2025, 337. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14020337.
  43. Bhaga T.D., Dube T., Shekede M.D., Shoko C.: Impacts of climate variability and drought on surface water resources in Sub‑Saharan Africa using remote sensing: A review. Remote Sensing, vol. 12(24), 2020, 4184. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12244184.
  44. Al-Ansari N.: Water resources in Iraq: Perspectives and prognosis. Journal of Water Resources and Geosciences, vol. 4(1), 2025, pp. 249–266.
  45. Al Ameri I.D.S., Briant R.M., Engels S.: Drought severity and increased dust storm frequency in the Middle East: A case study from the Tigris-Euphrates alluvial plain, Central Iraq. Weather, vol. 74(12), 2019, pp. 416–426. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3445.
Read More
Author biographies is not available.
Download this PDF file
PDF
Statistic
Read Counter : 47 Download : 19

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.